By : Sabri Haidar
(Photo/Sabri Haidar-The Mojo Network)
With media days wrapped and the preseason polls out, the long summer grind for college football is almost over. Fall camps are buzzing with energy, early reports are glowing, and the opening Saturday is less than two weeks away. The final preseason SP+ rankings are here to give us one last analytic snapshot before the 2025 season officially begins with Iowa State and Kansas State meeting in Dublin.
SP+, for those unfamiliar, is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted metric designed to measure a team’s efficiency in the most sustainable areas of the game. It’s not a résumé ranking or a prediction of how the AP Top 25 will end up — it’s a data-driven projection built to forecast performance. As always, these numbers have been updated to account for transfers, injuries, and roster adjustments heading into the season.
The Early Heavyweights
Ohio State claims the top spot in the final preseason SP+ rankings, followed closely by Alabama and Georgia. Penn State and Texas round out the top five, with Notre Dame, Oregon, Michigan, Ole Miss, and Clemson sitting inside the top 10. Each of these programs brings elite units on one or both sides of the ball, but their paths to the playoff vary widely — especially with some playing brutal schedules.
The Buckeyes’ defense projects among the nation’s best, while Alabama’s offense is expected to take a step forward under Ty Simpson. Georgia remains balanced despite turnover under center, and Penn State is once again loaded with defensive talent. Texas, despite pollsters placing them No. 1, comes in at No. 5 in SP+, a sign that data isn’t fully buying into the Arch Manning hype just yet.
Poll Discrepancies
Some of the biggest differences between the SP+ model and human voters are worth noting. Clemson, Illinois, and Arizona State all appear higher in the polls than they do in SP+, which factors in regression for teams that thrived in close games last year. On the flip side, SP+ is more bullish on Alabama, Ole Miss, and Michigan than the polls, citing strong underlying efficiency numbers from 2024 that didn’t always translate to wins in tight situations.
USC and Iowa are two other programs that get a friendlier projection from the analytics than from voters. Both had solid efficiency metrics last season despite underwhelming records, and each returns enough talent to push higher than expected in 2025.
Biggest Risers and Fallers
The rankings also highlight programs poised for major swings compared to last year. Florida State, Michigan, Oklahoma, Houston, and Texas Tech project as the biggest risers, with the Wolverines getting a notable defensive boost. On the other end, Bowling Green, Marshall, Texas State, and Jacksonville State are among the largest projected fallers, mostly due to roster turnover and lost production. In the Power Four, Ole Miss, Indiana, and Ohio State all see slight projected drops compared to 2024, though each remains in or near the top tier.
Conference Race Outlook
The SEC once again leads in average SP+ rating, with Alabama, Georgia, and Texas each having double-digit title odds. The Big Ten’s top four — Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon — combine for a 60% chance of winning the conference, making it a tighter race at the top than the SEC. The Big 12 looks like a complete toss-up, with Kansas State, Utah, and Arizona State all sitting in single-digit title odds territory. Clemson is the early favorite in the ACC, but Miami, SMU, and Louisville are all in striking distance.
The Bottom Line
With less than two weeks until kickoff, the SP+ model gives us a data-driven starting point for the 2025 season. While some projections line up with popular opinion, others highlight teams the analytics believe are over- or underrated. As always, September will bring chaos, injuries, and breakout performances that rewrite the narrative. But for now, the math says Ohio State is the team to beat, the SEC is as deep as ever, and nearly every conference has room for surprises.